Monday, July 13, 2026
Daily bet research report
Daily Bet Research Report — Monday, July 13, 2026
Bankroll: $146.19 | Available: $146.19 | Stake (20%): $29.24 Band: Decimal 1.50+ | Record: 30-16-2 | Hit rate: 65.2% (30/46 settled)
Yesterday: Bet #49 (Red Sox SGP) LOSS -$36.55. Two straight losses. Bankroll: $232.17 → $146.19 (-37% over 3 days)
Recent trajectory (be honest)
| Bet | Date | Play | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 7/7 | Rays SGP @ 2.30 | +$36.03 |
| 46 | 7/8 | Rays SGP @ 2.65 (50% boost) | +$57.61 |
| 47 | 7/10 | Ashcraft SGP (postponed) | $0 (Void) |
| 48 | 7/11 | Argentina 90-min ML | −$46.43 |
| 49 | 7/12 | Red Sox SGP @ 3.00 | −$36.55 |
Net last 5 bets: +$10.66 (not a disaster, but two clean losses hurt after the winning stretch)
Real lessons from the two losses
Loss #1 (Argentina 90-min ML)
Process error I own: WC knockout stage 90-min ML has ET/PK variance leak. Argentina won on penalties → they advanced → but our bet lost because the 90-minute regulation ended in a draw.
Fix locked into workflow.md: For WC knockouts, use "To Advance" market only. Same edge, no ET/PK leak.
Loss #2 (Red Sox SGP at 3.00 boosted)
Analysis error I own: I recommended upgrading from 2+ K/2.5 runs (2.44 boosted, +$8.88 EV) to 3+ K/3.5 runs (3.00 boosted, +$5.56 EV). The upgrade had lower EV — my true-probability estimate for Team Total O3.5 (76%) was too optimistic vs the book's aggressive 87% pricing.
Fix: Before recommending an "upgrade" to bigger legs, verify the actual bet365 leg prices — if the market is pricing the higher line aggressively (>85% implied), the upgrade probably HURTS EV even at higher payout. Original construction was the better math.
Both losses had real +EV going in, just variance played out. Not a strategy problem — but process refinements added.
Step 3 — Schedule Verification
MLB — NO GAMES
Today is the T-Mobile Home Run Derby (7pm ET, Citizens Bank Park). Not a normal betting market. All-Star Game is tomorrow (Tuesday 7/14, 8pm ET).
World Cup — REST DAY
Between QF (Saturday) and Semi (Tuesday). No matches.
Step 4 — TODAY: Rest Day
No plays available. Full rest day. Bankroll preserved at $146.19.
Looking ahead (this is where the value is)
Tuesday July 14
- WC Semi: France vs Spain, 3:00 PM ET (Dallas) ⭐⭐⭐
- This is the marquee edge play of the week
- Both teams elite — Spain hasn't conceded, France 6-0 in tournament
- Rich data, use "To Advance" market (learning from Bet #48)
-
Report ping window: 10 AM-2 PM ET Tuesday (earlier than usual, before 3pm kickoff)
-
MLB All-Star Game, 8:00 PM ET — Exhibition, low betting focus
Wednesday July 15
- WC Semi: England vs Argentina, 3:00 PM ET (Atlanta) ⭐⭐⭐
- Argentina survived Switzerland via ET+PK
- England pulled a late one against Norway
- Another marquee edge play
Friday July 17
- MLB resumes — full slate after 4-day break
Process notes
Report timing update needed in workflow.md: - Sunday day-game slates need 10 AM-12 PM ping (not 3-5 PM) - Tuesday WC semi (3 PM ET kickoff) also needs earlier ping - Standard 3-5 PM window works only for regular MLB evening slates
Bankroll discipline check: - At $146.19, we're above the July 2 low ($102.26) but well below recent peak ($232.17) - 20% stake still lands at $29.24 — comfortable size - No tilt-pressing tomorrow just because we lost twice
My recommendation
Take the day off. Rest bankroll. Prepare mentally for Tuesday's France vs Spain semi.
The last 5 bets have been high-variance with real edges. Some hit, some didn't. That's the game. Nothing to fix, nothing to press.
Ping me tomorrow (Tuesday) between 10 AM-1 PM ET for the France vs Spain WC semifinal preview. That's a marquee edge opportunity worth waking up early for.